Nickel mining. Data by Countries from 1970 to 2023

British Geological Survey data for 2023 indicate a clear shift in the structure of global nickel production. Indonesia remains the undisputed leader, producing 2,030,000 tonnes, up from 1,579,000 tonnes in 2022 - an increase of 451,000 tonnes or approximately +28.6%. The Philippines retained its position as the second-largest producer with 387,000 tonnes (+27,000 tonnes; +7.5% year-on-year). New Caledonia increased output to 238,807 tonnes, adding 31,738 tonnes (+15.3%).

Russia reduced production to 256,320 tonnes, a decline of 11,660 tonnes (≈−4.3%), partially offsetting growth in Southeast Asia. Canada recorded strong growth, producing 158,668 tonnes in 2023 versus 122,115 tonnes in 2022 - an increase of 36,553 tonnes or approximately +29.9%. Australia reduced output from 155,007 tonnes to 149,090 tonnes (−5,917 tonnes; ≈−3.8%), while China posted moderate growth to 112,600 tonnes (+2.9%).

Overall, Indonesia added nearly half a million tonnes, further strengthening its dominance in global supply. The Philippines and New Caledonia also reinforced their positions, while Canada delivered one of the highest relative increases among major producers. In contrast, Russia and Australia reduced output, lowering their global market shares in 2023.

Regional trends: Asia was the primary driver of global supply growth, led by Indonesia, the Philippines, and to a lesser extent China. Collectively, these countries accounted for the bulk of incremental supply in 2023. Oceania showed mixed dynamics: New Caledonia recorded strong growth, while Australia experienced a modest decline, shifting the regional balance toward expanding producers. Europe/Eurasia (including Russia) registered a slight contraction in 2023, reflecting reduced Russian output. Africa remained broadly stable, with only marginal changes; South Africa recorded a slight increase compared with 2022.

Drivers of the trends: Growth in Indonesia reflects sustained investment in laterite and near-surface nickel resources, expansion of processing capacity, and the commissioning of new mines and projects. The Philippines and New Caledonia benefited from higher industrial activity and recovery from earlier disruptions. Declines in Russia and Australia likely reflect technical and logistical constraints, market cyclicality, and a reallocation of investment toward Southeast Asian projects.

Overall assessment and Statbase outlook: The 2023 data confirm a continued shift of the global nickel production center toward Southeast Asia. If current trends persist, global nickel supply is expected to continue expanding in 2024–2026, primarily driven by Indonesia and the Philippines. Growth rates will depend on the pace of new capacity additions and prevailing price conditions.

Key risks: operational disruptions, tightening environmental regulation, price shocks, and political factors that could constrain the speed of production expansion. For the market, this implies a likely increase in supply over the medium term and downward pressure on prices in the absence of commensurate demand growth, although localized supply tightness may persist in regions with limited access to ore.